The Weather Outside Is Frightful! Die Hard Christmas Mafia Game - Day 4 (Game over - Scum Win)

[Babyhell]

hi

Hi

 

[coju]

First of all.. hi..

And four pages of spam? dayum. I will start reading them now, but spoiler alert, is it all just spam?
I can generally say that I agree with Zhao's sentiment:

I think you found the most relevant tidbit

It was also me that presented some math/links in the previous game for why always lynching is the best strategy, I will need to dig for them again. I am always open to consider a different strategy if any twist and turns arises. But having a regular day 1 spamfest followed by a no lynch is just a no no.

If you remember correctly, even though the lynched one typically flips town, it’s still worth it.
It is (typically) the only way to catch scum…
It’s wild how something as simple as that is debatable.

 

[coju]

There’s supposed to be a ? up there.

 

[Skjolde]

Are the days longer than usual? This "day" ends in 1 day and 13 hours, no?

 

[HuckIt]

if first feelings can be very significant.

awwww, you’ve got feelings for me :-D :: Well, I don’t fear your feelings, but check me out tonight if you can so you can trust me tomorrow. You’re super active which is good for poking people, and whether that’s a cover for scum or not, doesn’t matter if it’s generating information.

@skjole, the data for a lynch would be helpful, but most people here seem convinced at day 1 lynch would be good, so I’m not opposed, but if we do it, could I least ask we knock off a less active player? Whether they’re lurking because they’re afraid to be shown as scum, or because they’re lazy (or IRL is intruding), I imagine it’s would be less damaging to town if we guess wrong?

I suppose there is the spam factor, but I bet @D2DC is already running an algorithm checking word counts from mafia in previous games to show whether more or less posts are good for town, and which players post more when they’re town vs mafia!

Saying that, that might’ve been the argument to kill off Noodle last time, he was too quiet and didn’t defend himself? I guess I need to go back and track that down unless someone else remembers better but I’m struggling to find it on my phone. IIRC, it was the neighborhood game, I was mafia, we lynched noodle who was the cop. So, it was awesome for me (and shouodve been a win if I hadn’t botched it) but obviously you can see why I’m hesitant on a d1 lynch.

 

[HuckIt]

Vote: Skjolde

Because now I’m curious how fast if he’ll find those links :-D

 

[Babyhell]

Whether they’re lurking because they’re afraid to be shown as scum, or because they’re lazy (or IRL is intruding)

Last game saw a low participation member being a scum.

And a fresh guy who talked quite a bit was a scum too.

But it shouldn't be taken into account. If D2DC is scum he may ignore my messages. If he doesn't that's just because I made this statement. He is undoubtfully a scum.

Or not, who knows... maybe scums? We will see after a sleeping night trying to forget the violent dismemberment of the Demon.

 

[Skjolde]

On day 1 we rarely have anything to go on. I wouldn't be opposed to atleast start out voting for the idle ones (on day 1). Maybe it will get them to contribute.
Ideally I would something else to go on though..

 

[Skjolde]

Vote: Skjolde

Because now I’m curious how fast if he’ll find those links :-D

You're gonna have to wait some. I thought I linked something in the previous game, but D2DC beat me to it, not with links but an good explanation.
But sure, there is some good discussion in this thread: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=21947

There might be an article on the mafiascum wiki as well.

 

[Babyhell]

Interestingly enough D2DC put a pointer towards @Pyrotechnician - if I'm not mistaking it its still his vote.

The sacrificial lamb as a cover?

 

[coju]

You're gonna have to wait some. I thought I linked something in the previous game, but D2DC beat me to it, not with links but an good explanation.
But sure, there is some good discussion in this thread: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=21947

There might be an article on the mafiascum wiki as well.

Thank you for this link

 

[Gorny]

Are the days longer than usual? This "day" ends in 1 day and 13 hours, no?

Normally 48 hour periods, but I gave day 1 extra time once I had enough confirmations in, figured why not start as opposed to waiting till evening.

 

[Noodle]

Just like in real life, it's impossible to know ahead of time how long each day will be. The science just isn't there.

 

[Babyhell]

awwww, you’ve got feelings for me :-D :: Well, I don’t fear your feelings, but check me out tonight

Sometimes things can go quickly with me...or take time...the only things I can say is that scum may kill me over night, so I have to use my time as much as I can.

Why waiting for tonight? Days are long nowadays, maybe we should just have a talk in an elevator somewhere... you and I.

Not sure what could happen there, and on top of that, if we are going to leave it both alive...If any of us...I can state that I don't have a gun... can you?

 

[Babyhell]

Just like in real life, it's impossible to know ahead of time how long each day will be. The science just isn't there.

Gorny's science states that days are longer than nights. That's something we can start with.

It's summer here. Probably early summer.

 

[Babyhell]

My list of probable cums/[T]ownies

1. Noodle T 37.7%
2. D2DC S 118.9%
3. Huckit S 62.4%
4. Zhao_Yue T 78.3%
5. D2lover T 57.9%
6. Skjolde S 49.7%
7. Leopold Stotch S 53.6%
8. Pyrotechnician T 99.8%
9. Thefranklin T 56.1%
10. Coju T 76.0%
11. Babyhell T 198%

It sounds reasonable to see nonsense somewhere. I'm just building up the places.

 

[Babyhell]

Lok I fcked up xD can't edit!

My list of probable [ S ]cums/[ T ]ownies

1. Noodle T 37.7%
2. D2DC S 118.9%
3. Huckit S 62.4%
4. Zhao_Yue T 78.3%
5. D2lover T 57.9%
6. Skjolde S 49.7%
7. Leopold Stotch S 53.6%
8. Pyrotechnician T 99.8%
9. Thefranklin T 56.1%
10. Coju T 76.0%
11. Babyhell T 198%

It sounds reasonable to see nonsense somewhere. I'm just building up the places.

 

[Zhao_Yue]

Very much agree.

Albeit, after typing my previous post, I now disagree with this statement. I agree that further into the game that yes, each day hurts town. I don't think the odds are in our favor currently though. We are more than likely to lasso a town.

It's true that a no lynch day is more impactful closer to the end of the game, but a no lynch day 1 does shift the numbers to the mafia side albeit on a much smaller %. The important thing from a lynch is the role revealed and the interactions that can be inferred from that person. Going into day 2 with no lynch basically means we are just continuing from day 1 but with one less townie.

Valid point.

However I'll keep my feeling as a memory on this, and I'll see at some point if I was right. Or not. Maybe I (we) will never vote for you and it will be a last day discovery, but first feelings can be very significant.

Anyway day 1 is all about feelings, or somehow randomness (hence D2DC for now).




Let's dismember a member.

In your opinion who would be your top 3 people you would vote for?

 

[Babyhell]

I gave my rough evaluations in previous posts.

So it would be D2DC, then HuckIt right before Noodle (but close), then thefranklin.

Just take into consideration that those values are based upon pure b#!*sh!t, so don't take it for granted and validated by...

Science!

 

[Babyhell]

Also, IMO everyone is scum until the opposite is proven. So let me free your souls and send *you* to heaven.

For the sake of science, I'll go for D2DC. I don't trust those heavy trash talkers, maybe coju shall see his score revised soon.

I'm going to be killed at night, either this one or the following one. Let's try to live each and every minute fully.

I will free this world from the baddies, whatever is the price for the bright side. This is my duty. This is my crusade. This is nonsense.