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Smol Vanilla Mafia - Game over, Town Win.

I have an alternate proposal, which would (theoretically) give us a 2/3 chance of winning:

1. I know that I am town.
2. So, if I chose another player at random, there is a 2/3 chance they will be town.
3. As long as I and this player do not vote each other out, "we" will win.

* "we" meaning this two player alliance, which of course could unfortunately be me + mafia, in which case we (town) lose
 
D2DC said:
There isn't much to be gained by scrutinizing interactions, as there can only be one mafia. So, there are no "hidden partnerships" to be unearthed.
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D2DC said:
I have an alternate proposal, which would (theoretically) give us a 2/3 chance of winning:

1. I know that I am town.
2. So, if I chose another player at random, there is a 2/3 chance they will be town.
3. As long as I and this player do not vote each other out, "we" will win.

* "we" meaning this two player alliance, which of course could unfortunately be me + mafia, in which case we (town) lose
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So, an overt partnership?
 
Question:

Suppose that I invite Noodle to join me in just such an arrangement and D2DC joins with, say, Huckit. Wouldn't that bring us to a stalemate?
 
Granted, I am the only person who knows for certain that #1 is true. If I were mafia, and we accepted this proposal, it would always result in a town loss.

The other option is for us to "nominate" someone that we feel is "most town" to initiate this plan in my stead.

Statistically, from my perspective, we could nominate someone else: 2/3 chance they are town. And, assuming that I am still in consideration for this "alliance", there would be a 2/3 chance they chose a town partner.

So, 4/9 odds. Slightly worse than just randomly choosing lynches, but not drastically so. The potential upside of me stepping forward as candidate for nomination (+16.7% chance of winning) outweighs the potential downside (-5.6% chance of winning) of having to mominate someone else.
 
snickersnack said:
Question:

Suppose that I invite Noodle to join me in just such an arrangement and D2DC joins with, say, Huckit. Wouldn't that bring us to a stalemate?
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Yes.

Basically, everyone would have to agree to the terms before announcing the second "partner".

Assuming that nobody plans on voting for themselves, we need unanimous votes each round to secure a lynch. 3/4 votes for 1st round, and 2/3 for second.
 
I'd just like to take a moment to remind everyone:

Never wear a cone shaped hat while playing Mafia.
 
D2DC said:
Granted, I am the only person who knows for certain that #1 is true. If I were mafia, and we accepted this proposal, it would always result in a town loss.

The other option is for us to "nominate" someone that we feel is "most town" to initiate this plan in my stead.

Statistically, from my perspective, we could nominate someone else: 2/3 chance they are town. And, assuming that I am still in consideration for this "alliance", there would be a 2/3 chance they chose a town partner.

So, 4/9 odds. Slightly worse than just randomly choosing lynches, but not drastically so. The potential upside of me stepping forward as candidate for nomination (+16.7% chance of winning) outweighs the potential downside (-5.6% chance of winning) of having to mominate someone else.
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Man, as always when D2DC does this math logic stuff I remember a) I’m dumb and obviously don’t think enough to play this game properly b) I’ve seen D2 use this to talk his way to nearly town victory c) I’ve seen D2 use this method to wipe out town.

So, if I know I’m town, and I need to pick a partner, given my past history with giant pumpkin death eating demons, and unfortunate misunderstands with orange goo, if I want to calculate my odds as thoughtfully as D2 I’m still going to find myself waiting for Noodle to contribute something meaningful as the most experienced player here.
 
I've always found it suspicious when someone volunteers that they're town. For one thing, it means nothing, because mafia would say that just as easily. Also, as a parent, if I walk into my son's room and he volunteers, "I'm not up to anything!" I know damn well he's up to something.

It's like the Billy Joel song:

Billy: we didn't start the fire!

Cop: I didn't say anything about a fire.

Billy: crap.

But in a game this small with no night actions, there's not a lot to go off.
 
D2DC said:
@everyone - kind of a lukewarm reception to my proposal. So, if it was put to an up or down vote, would you be a yea or nay?
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I'm a little torn. D2Dc is the most active player here, but that's likely because he's eager for the game.

At first, I was thinking about Huckit, b/c he wasn't present. Now, I'm thinkning about D2Dc because he's very present. Hmmmm.
D2DC said:
@everyone - kind of a lukewarm reception to my proposal. So, if it was put to an up or down vote, would you be a yea or nay?
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I don't know. Noodle, my main man, has been pretty mum. Hard to say.

Huckit was pretty mum as well, until just recently. I think that if I were to assent, I'd pair with Noodle. Just sayin.
 
I should add that I think my keyboard may be sticking as I don't mean to refer to D2DC as D2Dc. I'm not doing a meme, but maybe doing a sticky wicket.
 
So am I supposed to pair up with D2DC to make a nice stalemate and to prove I’m town and in no rush to lynch anyone? I mominate myself to be the designated townie and fully agree with D2’s proposal to gamble that I’m town and you can trust me. And now that I’m confirmed town, let’s start boiling water
Vote: Noodle
 
Counting my Dii.ne
HuckIt said:
And that was my 100th message on this forum! How many you at @Gorny, I bet I’m right behind you!
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Counting my Dii.net forum account? 28,757.

You have a loooooong way to go.
 
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